Lubbers Web Numbers Down? Nate the Science Guy Up!

As I’ve said before, I really enjoy my job.  Perhaps the most enjoyable part of it is when I discover a sudden and unexpected emergency and it is entirely up to me to fix it.

For example, I came into work yesterday feeling great.  There is little doubt that my life is awesome.  The site is kicking it in overdrive.  Plenty of real work exists for me to do.  And, assuming everything works out the way I’m planning, we’re going to give away an Ipad on the Lubbers Facebook Fanpage, based on the high score for one of three games.  BTW, if you haven’t, I highly recommend going to the fanpage and voting in the comments for Bejeweled, Pac Man, or Tetris.  Once the choice is made, it’s not changeable.

Also, please don’t vote for Bejeweled. I’ve never played that game and have no idea how to get a high score in it.

Anyway, things were looking up.  Then I looked at last week’s web numbers.  And the world went to crap.

I have no idea why, but the numbers had dropped by approximately 2000 page views.  That’s a BIG drop!  Naturally, I freaked out.  Outwardly, of course, I just sat and stared at the screen for a while, but mentally I was definitely hyperventilating.  (I’m not one for visual histrionics.)

This is not what I looked like. Also, I'm a guy.

Immediately, I threw my brain into hyper-drive (or whatever it is that we humans do), and tackled the problem.  First, what’s changed recently that could have that kind of huge effect?

Um.

Oh, of course! Two weeks ago I put into place a new way of listing pre-owned vehicles.

Awesome, is that the cause?

I have no idea.

Well…, figure it out!

And so, for the next 3 to 4 hours, I drew up elaborate excel spreadsheet charts using approximately four weeks of data, trying to ferret out evidence that the listing change was the cause of the problem.

In the end, it seemed clear that our users were not actually down by very much (though they were down), and the degree by which they were down did not account for the full decrease in page views.

This suggested that, unless potential customers had way less time to screw around at work while looking at our vehicles, a web-based factor was the root cause.

Still, I had no way of knowing whether the vehicle listing change WAS that cause.  Logic seemed to dictate that it should be, but experimentation and testing are the true key to website success.  I considered using the Google Web Optimizer to run a series of either/or tests on whether linking to one Vehicle Listing Page or the other would result in significantly more page views, but realized that the back-end tool provided by Reynolds and Reynolds (our delightful web provider who is REALLY dragging their feet on AJAX list searches, even after I demonstrated how awesome AJAX Vehicle Listings could be*) would not allow for multiple home pages, a necessity of the web optimizer.

So I went a little more old school.  Two primary links (plus like 6 less primary links) point toward the Listing pages.  Yesterday, I just switched one of the primary links to the old Listing Page.  At midnight tonight, I’ll reverse the two.  After another 24 hours, I’ll add up and compare the results.  In theory, page views should be fairly similar, accounting for weekly variance, which is usually pretty small from Tuesday to Wednesday.  If they AREN’T, however, then I’ll have a culprit!

Reason #72: I use the scientific method and understand why it is useful!

*BTW, seriously, check out that AJAX vehicle listing link. I put together that list over the course of a few days as a proof of concept. It doesn’t do a whole lot and makes extensive use of open source javascript and other code, but it is pretty darned cool. Try typing something into the search bar.  You’ll really enjoy it.  Maybe.

Edit:  Quick update.  I’ve just discovered the miracle of the Exit Rate statistic on Google Analytics.  This stat tells me if a page that directs users to other pages fails in its job by instead confusing or pissing off users and causing them to leave the site.

So far, New Inventory Page has a 19% exit rate.  Old Inventory Page only has a 13% exit rate.  6% COULD account for the difference.

Reason #114: I have the ability to prognosticate

See this?

http://www.facebook.com/help/contact.php?show_form=user_stories&ref=mf

This is Facebook taking my “Reason #9: tell your stories” and exploiting it.  Now, sure, they probably already had that page up, and only tweeted about it by coincidence after my post writing.  And, similarly, sure, their naming convention for the page sucks.  Nevertheless, I think we can all agree that I am a genius with way too much awesome on his hands.

Reason #82: I have German friends!

In 2002 I gained a family that I didn’t know existed (and that I’m not actually in any way related to).  In 2003 I lost the email address that was the only way I would have been able to keep in contact with them.  In 2009, I re-discovered a girl named Judith Schmiedle, and through her, I found her sister Sarah and her brother Alex.  This is our story.

How it Began

I had no idea, as I boarded the plane on June 11th, 2002, what was going to happen to me for the next two months. My German wasn’t really very good for an advanced German study abroad program, and it seemed like traveling to Germany without the ability to speak German was going to be a pretty big problem.

Fortunately, a week into the program, things were going well. Mine was, without a doubt, not the worst German in our crew of scoundrels, and most of my fears had been allayed. The trick was, to that point, we had been acting as tourists. There had been no classes, and, more importantly, I had not been put up with my German host family.

I don’t actually remember the trip from the Holzkirchen square to my host family’s house. I’ve got no clue who got me there, though I assume it has to have been either Mr. or Mrs. Schmiedle. I do, however, remember my tour of the home.

It was an amazing place. Four stories tall with a basement/laundry room, a family room and kitchen on the first floor (along with pretty backyard that held a gazebo where the family was trying to grow grapes), various bedrooms on the second floor, and a converted attic. The attic was to be my room. It felt vaguely like my own little palace. I had a Nintendo 64 to play, a walk-out balcony with the famous European Tilt-Turn windows installed, my own bathroom (in Germany and the UK, the word “Toilet” means bathroom. Not sure what the actual toilet is called anymore), and a big, beautiful bed with a duvet cover.

The most remarkable thing about this house (apart from its being awesome generally) was that it was part of a four house block. In other words, it was a condominium. In Europe, space is always considered to be at a premium and urban sprawl is an ugly thing best prevented wherever possible. Thus, rather than live in single family houses, most middle class people, if they can afford it, live in condominiums and similar dwellings. In America, the most famous example of something similar might be the home of the Tanners.

But enough about the house. Let’s talk about the people.

There were five members of the Schmiedle family. There were, of course, the two parents. Then there was Alex, his younger sister Judith, and the youngest in the family, Sarah.

Almost immediately, I felt like a member of the family. Mamma Schmiedle seemed always concerned about whether I’d eaten enough and was always convinced that I should drink about 10 gallons of Apfelschorle (carbonated apple juice) an hour. It’s impossible to replace my mom, but Mamma Schmiedle certainly tried her hardest.

Pappa Schmiedle was obviously the stern authoritarian that nobody was especially afraid of. He was the one who laid down the law on the first day and decried that we would only be speaking German. I was actually pretty happy with this rule, as speaking German was the entire point of the trip, but pretty much the entire rest of the family ignored the rule when it suited them.

Sarah and Judith were very nice and very beautiful, so naturally I was terrified of them. Still, probably my best story about Germany involves Judith.

Alex was the one who most effectively adopted me into the family. On the very first day he convinced me to go to a bonfire with some of his buddies, all of whom wanted to speak to me in English, rather than German. (note: at this party, I learned Germans call tee-pees by the alternate name wigwam or vig-vahm) Alex made me watch awesome German movies that involved famous action star Til Schweiger, whom you may remember as the German who loved killing Nazis in Inglorious Basterds. And, for whatever reason, it was just easier to understand his German. Sometimes Mamma Schmiedle would try to explain something to me, Alex would get frustrated, explain the same thing like like five words, and I’d be back in the game.

I’ve never had a brother, but I think you could make the argument Alex was the closest thing I’ve ever had to one.

The Beer Trip

I’ll only tell you one specific story about the family. One day I wasn’t doing anything important. Alex and Pappa Schmiedle cornered me and explained that, since I didn’t have anything else going on, we were going to sample local beers. I wasn’t much of a drinker at this point in my life. I’d certainly never been drunk, and had only had a few beers ever. So I was hesitant.

But there’s one rule in Germany. You don’t piss off the locals by refusing to try their beer. So I went along.

That night I discovered a wide variety of beers and beer mixes (including my favorite, which has an incredibly racist name, and which involves mixing wheat beer and coke. Seriously good. If you get the chance, try it out.) First we went to a local bar. Then we went to a local gas station.

Gas stations, btw, all have tables in Germany. People often go there, drink a few beers, and then turn in the bottles for recycling. EVERYONE recycles in germany, because you can make a fair amount of money doing so.*

*Update: I have been informed that while recycling is common, not everybody goes to gas stations and drinks. This is a fairly old post, bt if any German folk happen upon it, feel free to say whether you’ve ever had a beer in a gas station in the comments.

By the end of the night, I might have been drunk. I’d never been drunk before, so it was hard to say. The only thing I definitely remember (it’s been 8 years, I should be forgiven forgetting some things) is what happened when we got back from our beer excursion.

The three of us walked into the house, and Judith’s entire handball team was there. They were all very pretty and very friendly, and I was the toast of the town! My german was perfect. My jokes were well timed and witty.  These girls thought I was awesome!

To this day, I have no idea if that memory is accurate. It’s very possible that the alcohol DID make my german better. It’s also completely possible that I was a total ass. No clue. Eventually, I excused myself, went upstairs, collapsed in my bed, and woke up the next morning feeling very groggy.

The Reunion

One of my chief regrets in life was losing contact with my German family.  Facebook has done a lot for me. It’s connected me with friends I’d mostly lost contact with. It’s let me talk to girls I used to be afraid of. It’s facilitated events and meetups and organizational planning. But maybe the one thing it’s done for me that I am most grateful for is the reconnection it has given me with the trio of people I thought I might never seen again.

Alex, Judith, and Sarah, I want to thank all three of you for making my time in Germany a wonderful one. It was one of the most extraordinary summers of my life, and you are a big part of the reason why. (Also, if you were having trouble with all the English, http://translate.google.com is a very useful site.)

I guess none of this story does a great job explaining why Facebook should give me a job.  But maybe not all stories need to.  Maybe some stories can just be for me and my friends.

Reason #9: James has an incredible story and no one knows it

Hey Facebook,

I recently did a google search for the term “Hey Facebook.”  On the front page (and the second page) I discovered a LOT of links about breastfeeding and obscenity.  Also there was a video that I decided I probably didn’t want to click entitled “Hey Facebook, suck this.”  Of course, I DID click on it, but that’s another story.

Anyway, once I got past all the breastfeeding outrage, I came across page 3(!), which I now present in all its glory:

Page 3

As you can see, when people say something after “Hey Facebook,” it is practically guaranteed to be unpleasant.  Now, I’m all for saying terrible things about Facebook, and doing so in a loud and obnoxious way.

In fact, that’s how I get my kicks.  It’s the reason I created this blog!

But it seems, Mr. & Mrs. Facebook, that the best way to deal with something like “Hey Facebook” complaints is by creating a forum yourselves and letting people wax eloquent about Facebook on your dime.  Providing an avenue to vent is always better than forcing the public to create their own.

Let’s face it, for all that the engineers of Facebook are amazing at creating social networking software, you folks are surprisingly bad at managing your own social image.  Every other day, yet another person complains about a loss of privacy.  Senators stampede like cattle to come knocking at your door and attack your initiatives.  Blogs run red with the blood of Facebook rage and a plague of privacy locusts attack privacy crops.  Mass hysteria!

People love Facebook because it allows them to get closer to others, but they hate it because, in the end, it feels like a monolithic beast intent on consuming information about their interests and family and auctioning off that info to the highest bidder.

So how do you fix that?

I think my favorite thing from that Page 3 of the Google search results is the very last item.  “Hey, Facebook: Thanks for giving me more than just memories…” It’s a bittersweet (and brief) story of reconnecting with the girl and the relationship that got away.  A man named James, in his 40s, who had been divorced twice, opened himself up to the online social network and rediscovered a girl he had not seen for 25 years.  He resolved life issues and came away a slightly happier person, all thanks to Facebook.

Everyday the world becomes a more interesting place, not because of OKCupid or Match.com, where the intentions are obvious and outspoken, but because of places like Facebook, where no one is really certain of anyone else’s (or their own) intentions. Yet in spite of this uncertainty, or perhaps because of it, they are always willing to look down paths once thought long dead.  They are willing to dredge up old memories and have conversations they never thought they’d have.

In the end, I think that’s how you fix the issue.  Don’t ignore the complaints. Answer them as best you can.

More importantly though, allow people to walk down the dark paths of information and discover their connection to the people behind Facebook itself. Create a place that exposes the wizards behind the white wall. Open an avenue for people in front of the white facebook curtain to step inside the Facebook monolith and have a long look around.

My God, it's full of stars!

You are in the most unique position IN THE WORLD to do this.  When you make a change to the front page, don’t just make the change!  Create a banner that explains the change with a link that offers more info.  And then provide that info! Talk about why you made the change.  Talk about the person or people behind it.  Provide limited profile links to those people.  Talk about how this change will help the user.  Talk about how this change will allow another million men and women just like James to have a life changing experience.  Never fix Facebook. Revolutionize it. Again and again and again.

And just as importantly, monitor when people post openly about how Facebook has helped them in their personal lives.  Offer to let them write about their experience.  Always leave a page open dedicated specifically to allowing people to talk about how Facebook has changed their world.

You, as a company, are in a better position to garner more good will than any other company in history.  Make use of that position! Become open! Become honest! Communicate!

Also, once you hire me, Facebook, I’ll gladly give over the site hey-facebook.com to you for the express purpose of giving everyone the opportunity to wax eloquent, to cry, to yell, to complain, to reminisce, etc. etc. about what Facebook has done for them.*  And, of course, you can use it yourselves to create an open place for people to learn, in a positive way, about the most recent change your company has just made.

*I imagine, at that point, you’d probably just turn hey-facebook.com into a redirect for a http://www.facebook.com/folder page (or even the more awesome hey.facebook.com), but that’s the way of things.

As for James, I regret to say that I don’t know how that story ended.  He posted his story on the 18th of January and stopped blogging on the 5th of February.  I would love to know whatever happened to the guy and the girl with whom he reconnected, but despite all that I’ve said about him, he isn’t even my friend! … My facebook friend, that is.

Reason #37: I write and release lists out of order

Hey Facebook,

You’ll probably notice that the very second reason I provide is reason number 37.  That isn’t by mistake!  As a rule, I never write lists in order unless I have a very good reason to do so (like the rule of three or because I’m actually trying to win the argument).

The Rule of Three (Little Pigs) in action

No, I find that in the world of long-winded explanations and drawn out to unnatural length jokes the best thing to do is to write my lists out of order.  This way I always have room to come up with a really great Reason #1, and I’m not limited to a specific set of numbers.

I believe you’d find this ethic useful in a company that puts out a product as strange as Facebook, which, honestly, is really just one enormous list of intensely unordered things.

I not only don’t need my lists to be in order, I actively seek out disorder, but I do it in an way that makes the user feel unthreatened and overjoyed to partake of my kickass (excuse the french) product.  Vaguely like a crack dealer!  Or like Facebook, the crack of the internet!

To give you an idea of how useful this skill is, consider God.  Now, sure, he’s an almighty being of limitless genius, knowledge, and power, whose mere presence can bleach hair and cause mass insanity.

Or is that chlorine gas?

Someone get George away from the chlorine!

Either way, a dude like God could put together a perfectly ordered list in the blink of an eye.  As he did.  I forget the name of it, but it was some kind of list of things people either should or should not do.  And I think there’s some confusion about what’s actually on the list.  Something about graven images or Lord’s day or some crazy bull-crap like that.

Anyway, God, the almighty being, came up with a perfect list,* and people still couldn’t get it right.  We mere mortals are going to do way worse than that with any list we create, so it’s far better to really strive to get the bits of our list that we’re really sure about right, and just chalk the rest up to the ineffability of a perfect list.

And for that purpose, I am your man.

*I STILL think people should have to carry around paddles and dig holes so that they can have a place to ease themselves.

Reason #46: I can make things sizzle

Hey Facebook,

Some say that men should be judged by the quality of their work.  I don’t say this, because my work is sloppy and haphazard at best.  Instead, I say that we should be judged on our ability to make the work that we do seem awesome even if the quality is crap.  And in this, I am a master.

The banner that sits over these words was made in an hour or two using grainy camera phone pictures and hacked together with a fake white background and a drop shadow effect.  Is it a quality job?  Absolutely not.  Does it sizzle?  HECK YES.

And, really, isn’t that what separates the good from the great?  Job openings always ask for detail oriented people, but I personally think that’s a stupid requirement.

Where is this stupid forest?

The question is never whether the person can keep his eye on the details, because there are always an infinite number of details.  A person can get swept up in the mundane details and utterly fail to accomplish the task he has set out to complete.

If you work a 60 hour week, does the minor detail of whether you show up at 8:00am or 8:15am matter?

For example, if you are laying a trap for the hell-spawn of the old one Cthulu, and you don’t get there to stand in your spot on the mystical hexagram in time, then have you made a pretty big mistake that will cause you a thousand years of suffering and misery in the icy bowels of unspeakable evil because you’ve allowed him to escape his magical bounds and wreak havoc upon the Earth?

Well, yes.  Perhaps that is a bad example.

OK, here’s a better one: a TPS report can just as easily be filed at 8:30 as it can at 8:00!

On the other hand, if you notice that some minor change in your advertisement for zombie baby hunting equipment increases sales by 45% AND has the double bonus of reducing the Ragnarök-like swell of evil zombie babies, then you have cut through the riffraff and done something extraordinary by just keeping an eye on the minor details.

And that is what sizzle really is.  It’s the ability to focus on the details that matter.  The ability to focus on the details that might go unnoticed, that seem almost to blend into the background.  And it is the creativity of drawing those details out and turning something that is OK into something amazing.

Job openings should not list “detail oriented” as a requirement.  They should say, “has ability to identify and react to important details.”  They should say, “knows what’s what.”

They should say, “sizzle oriented!”

With that in mind, I believe you’ll agree the following video totally proves that I can make almost anything sizzle!

httpvh://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNOlhTjI8Lk&feature=player_embedded